The risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the population of a large industrial city (using the example of Nizhny Novgorod)

Introduction. In recent decades, the incidence of malignant neoplasms in the world has increased significantly, and environmental factors make a significant contribution to this growth. Anthropogenic air pollution is one of the most serious threats to public health worldwide. It contributes to the development of various respiratory diseases, including carcinogenesis. Currently, the experts are registering annually in the Russian Federation more than 450,000 newly diagnosed cases of malignant neoplasms.

The study aims to assess the risk of developing malignant neoplasms with inhaled carcinogens in children and adults in Nizhny Novgorod.

Materials and methods. The authors have carried out the carcinogenic risk assessment in accordance with R 2.1.10.3968-23 "Guidelines for assessing the risk to public health when exposed to chemicals that pollute the environment". Information on the concentrations of pollutants in the atmospheric air was obtained from the Verkhne-Volzhskoye UGMS. Statistical data on the morbidity of the Nizhny Novgorod population were taken from the collection "Basic indicators of public health and the activities of public medical organizations in the Nizhny Novgorod region for 2023".

Results. When assessing population risks based on data from 2023, the scientists have established that elevated concentrations of formaldehyde in the atmospheric air of Nizhny Novgorod can provoke 9 and 70 additional cases of malignant neoplasms, benzene — 6 and 64, and ethylbenzene — 3 and 9 additional cases for children and adults, respectively. Simultaneous exposure to these carcinogens will lead to 15 additional cases of cancer per year among children and 143 among adults.

Conclusion. The individual carcinogenic risk to the health of the Nizhny Novgorod population from inhaled exposure to pollutants is represented at medium (for the adult population) and low (for children) levels. However, the results of calculating the lifetime population carcinogenic risk are worrisome, which requires constant medical monitoring and systematic measures to reduce carcinogenic substances in urban air.

Ethics. This study did not require the conclusion of an Ethics Committee.

Contributions:
Bolshakova A.D. — research concept and design, material collection and processing, statistical data processing, text writing;
Zaznobina N.I. — material processing, statistical data processing, text writing, editing;
Kalashnikov I.N. — editing;
Yashanova M.I. — editing.

Funding. The study had no funding.

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Received: 09.06.2025 / Accepted: 04.12.2025 / Published: 20.12.2025

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